A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
