Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".